Wheat in Pakistan is not just a crop; it is politics, survival, and the government’s most stubborn obsession. It provides over 40 percent of daily caloric intake for households, sustains millions of farming families, and directly influences food security, and inflation.

Every year, as crop sowing season nears or harvest is ready, policymakers dust off the same outdated playbook: fix support prices, push farmers into induced wheat cultivation, restrict imports until shortages hit, and then scramble for costly emergency off-season imports. This cycle has turned Pakistan’s wheat policy into a permanent crisis-management exercise rather than a strategy.

The results are familiar—chronic shortages, smuggling to neighboring countries, hoarding by opportunists, rising flour prices, and an endless fiscal burden on provinces and the federal government. Despite being an agrarian country, Pakistan spends billions of dollars annually on wheat imports and subsidy. Yet our farmers remain poor, our consumers face food inflation, and the state bleeds resources.

Last year 2024, government promised MSP of Rs3900 per 40kgs but due to ample previously imported wheat stocks in warehouses, no storage space was available, Punjab government did not procure wheat from growers during the harvest season started. The government allowed private sector to procure wheat. Due to a bumper crop and Punjab government’s last moment exit from procurement, wheat prices were crashed from Rs3900 to Rs1800 per 40kgs.

IMF also forced government to stop ‘Minimum Support Price’ and wheat procurement due to mounted chronic commodity circular debt, as policy is flawed, bears no fruits for consumers, growers and entire subsidy goes into deep pockets of ultimate grinders and flour millers. Last year, the government did not procure wheat was a good decision but did not open import after completion of wheat harvest though missed production target, was a bad decision which suited to nasty hoarders, traders to hoard huge stocks, and created artificial shortage. As a result, wheat prices were surged up to Rs4300 per 40kgs. Masses are paying high prices for flour and prices may exacerbate in coming months prior to arrival of new harvest.

It is time to break this vicious cycle which almost every year repeats. Instead of clinging to an orthodox and faulty wheat procurement model, Pakistan must move toward a smart wheat stockpile policy—a system that secures national food security, protects growers, but also leverages global trade efficiently. The successful rice stockpile policy of Singapore offers an instructive model.

The flaws of the induced farming model

Pakistan’s wheat policy is built on an outdated concept: that self-sufficiency means growing more wheat at home, no matter the cost. Each year, the government sets a support price that encourages farmers to cultivate wheat, often at the expense of more profitable or exportable high value crops like pulses, spices and oil seeds.

Induced farming has four major flaws:

1. Inefficient resource allocation: Land, water, and fertilizers are locked into wheat production even when comparative advantage lies elsewhere.

2. Unsustainable fiscal burden: The government procures millions of tons of wheat each year, paying inflated support prices and incurring massive storage, wastage, theft and corruption costs. By 30 June 2025, government’s ‘Commodity Operations’ amount soared to over Rs1006 billion.

3. Consumers’ vulnerability: Despite all interventions, flour prices rise whenever production falls short, forcing costly imports.

4. Farmer dissatisfaction: Corruption in issuance of empty bags (bardana), procurement centers, and rising input costs leave many growers worse off than before.

In essence, Pakistan’s wheat policy satisfies no one—neither the farmer, the consumer, nor the state.

Learning from Singapore’s rice stockpile

Singapore, a nation with little or no farmland, provides a stark contrast. Rather than trying to grow its own rice, it secures food security through a strategic rice stockpiles stored at warehouses of Singapore Storage & Warehousing Pte Ltd. Importers are required to hold mandatory stock levels against their imports, and the state monitors reserves closely to ensure that two months’ of national consumption, at least, is available at all times.

The system is smart because:

It ensures price stability by preventing panic buying and speculation. It leverages the global market instead of subsidizing the staple for political gains. It places responsibility on a regulated private sector to keep stockpiles at their cost thus reducing fiscal costs for the state. It allows consumers to access rice at stable, affordable prices year-round.

If Singapore, with no farmland, can design a secure and efficient stockpiles system, Pakistan — with millions of hectares of arable land — can certainly replicate and adapt this approach for wheat.

Toward a smart wheat stockpile policy:

A modern wheat policy for Pakistan should rest on three pillars: strategic reserves, market liberalization, and farmer protection.

1. Strategic stockpile

Instead of forcing mass government procurement every year, Pakistan should maintain a buffer stock equal to at least two to three months of national consumption. This can be achieved by entrusting Pakistan Agricultural Storage & Services Corporation (PASSCO) with the responsibility to store private stocks sent as mandatory stockpiles. Allow food grains licence holder-approved flour mills, private traders, importers and exporters to hold 10 percent additional mandated reserves for one year (replace stocks with fresh stocks) against their quotas allocated to purchase, import or export value added wheat products under strict monitoring. Use of modern silos and warehouse receipt systems can reduce storage losses.

This approach would ensure food security without the massive fiscal drain of annual bulk procurement.

Benefits of transitioning to a smart wheat policy:

Reduced fiscal burden – Billions spent annually on procurement, storage, and subsidies can be redirected to targeted farmers support and technology.

Price stability — Market-driven imports and exports will prevent artificial shortages and speculative hoarding.

Food security — Mandatory private stockpiles will ensure wheat reserves are always available, independent of government inefficiency.

Farmer empowerment – Direct support schemes will safeguard growers’ incomes without over-reliance on politically manipulated support prices.

Competitiveness – A liberalized wheat market would integrate Pakistan into global value chains, much like its rice sector.

Pakistan’s reliance on orthodox induced wheat farming is neither financially sustainable nor socially just. Farmers remain poor, consumers pay higher prices, and the state drowns in inefficiency. By adopting a smart wheat stockpile policy inspired by Singapore’s rice model, coupled with a free market for imports and exports, Pakistan can achieve genuine food security while safeguarding farmers’ livelihoods.

The transition will require political courage, digital enforcement, and institutional reforms. But if Pakistan can treat wheat with the same strategic foresight that Singapore treats rice, the country could finally break its cycle of wheat crises and move toward a sustainable, market driven, and farmer-friendly system.

The writer is a former Vice President of KCCI, and an expert on world commodities, trade.

Note: This article appeared in the Business Recorder on Oct 08, 2025.