The Economic Survey of Pakistan 2024–25, released by the Ministry of Finance, reveals a GDP growth of 2.68%, falling significantly short of the 3.56% target. This underwhelming figure is also below the projected global average of 2.8% for 2025, underscoring the country’s inability to regain economic momentum. Once again, Pakistan finds itself limping behind global trends, unable to harness its potential or energise its foundational sectors.

Of the three main sectors contributing to GDP, the industrial sector offered a rare bright spot, posting a robust 4.77% growth. The services sector followed with a modest 2.91%. But agriculture—the backbone of Pakistan’s economy and the mainstay of rural livelihoods—barely grew at all, recording a paltry 0.56% increase. This anaemic performance not only drags down national output but reflects decades of policy neglect, poor planning, and lack of innovation in a sector that should be leading our economic recovery.

The breakdown of agricultural data for 2024–25 paints a troubling picture. Overall crop output shrank by 6.82%, with a disastrous 13.49% fall in major crops—the most crucial segment of agricultural production. While minor crops increased by 4.78%, this could not offset the damage. Cotton ginning—a critical link to the textile sector—collapsed by a staggering 19.03%, indicating serious supply-side issues. Though livestock grew by 4.72%, and forestry and fishing showed marginal gains of 3.03% and 1.42% respectively, these are not enough to compensate for the wider systemic failure.

Shockingly, this is the third time since 2013 that agricultural growth has failed to cross the 1% mark—previously at 0.15% in 2016 and 0.94% in 2019. Over a 12-year stretch, the sector has only managed an average annual growth rate of 2.72%. That is simply not good enough. For a country where more than 60% of the population is rural and heavily reliant on agriculture, such stagnation is not just a missed opportunity—it is a national crisis.

Pakistan’s agriculture must grow faster than its population, which is expanding at 2.55% annually. Anything less erodes per capita food availability, weakens rural livelihoods, and drives up food prices. Experts suggest that a minimum of 3.5% to 4% annual growth in agriculture is essential for developing countries like Pakistan. And yet, we consistently fall short, trapped in a cycle of mismanagement, climate vulnerability, and failure to invest in resilience.

The consequences of continued underperformance are dire. If agricultural growth does not at least match population growth, Pakistan faces the spectre of worsening food insecurity, soaring inflation, and increasing dependence on imports that it simply cannot afford. Already battered by inflation and unemployment, the public will suffer further as malnutrition spreads—particularly among children and women. The social and political fallout of a food crisis in a volatile and unequal society like ours is not hard to imagine. This is a slow-burning emergency, and we are sleepwalking through it.

Despite year-to-year fluctuations, agriculture remains a cornerstone of the economy. Its contribution to GDP has remained significant—22.43% in 2018–19, rising to 24.03% in 2023–24, and currently at 23.54%. But a sector that makes up nearly a quarter of the economy cannot afford such dismal growth. When agriculture stagnates, its ripple effects are felt far beyond the farm. Allied industries like textiles, sugar, flour milling, dairy, and food processing suffer from input shortages, underutilised capacity, and reduced output. Demand collapses for fertilisers, seeds, pesticides, and machinery, hurting both manufacturing and commerce. Disrupted supply chains paralyse logistics, transportation, and rural retail, throttling informal and semi-formal economies.

It is no exaggeration to say that the future of Pakistan’s economic stability hinges on reviving agriculture. Without urgent and sustained reforms, this sector will continue to decay, dragging the entire economy down with it. Agricultural revival is not optional—it is a prerequisite for national survival.

The writer is a Lahore-based economist working as a research associate at the Centre of Economic Planning and Development (CEPD), Minhaj University Lahore. He can be reached at waqas.eco@mul.edu.pk; waqasshair689@gmail.com

Note: This article first appeared in The Nation on July 1, 2025.